At the International Trade Forum in Kyiv on March 5, 2025, the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine presented the key priorities of Ukraine’s export strategy until 2030. This strategy aims to increase exports by 50% over the next five years.
During the forum, Taras Kachka, the Deputy Minister of Economy and Trade Representative of Ukraine, outlined key aspects of Ukraine’s export policy, the current challenges faced by businesses and prospects for international trade development. The new strategy calls for collaboration between the business, the state and the public to establish conducive conditions for export development, wherein the state will extend support to producers both domestically and internationally.
The role of exports in the economy of the country
Exports remain a primary catalyst for Ukraine’s economic expansion. According to the government and the NBU, the export sector not only generates substantial foreign exchange earnings (at approximately $51 billion in 2024), but also contributes to GDP growth by driving investments in new technologies, expanding production capacity and modernizing infrastructure. Furthermore, the expansion of exports has led to the creation of new employment opportunities and the stimulation of wage growth in related industries. According to NBU calculations, in 2024, the average annual salary level was ensured for 1.4 million people in various export-related industries. In 2025, this figure is expected to increase due to the emergence of new export-oriented businesses and the expansion of existing ones.
Despite the downward trend in the role of exports in the national economy in 2014-2023 (with the exception of 2021, when the volume of Ukrainian exports of goods and services reached a historic high of $79.3 billion), exports continue to play a significant role in the development of the Ukrainian economy. While in 2014 the trade-to-GDP was 49%, by 2023 this figure had decreased to 25%. During this period, Ukraine’s nominal GDP grew from $134 to $179 billion, while exports decreased from $69 to $44.4 billion. The significant decline in 2022-2023 was evidently influenced by the war, the changes in the export commodity structure and lower prices.
In 2024, the situation began to stabilize, and the exports have shown a considerable increase by 14%, reaching $50.3 billion. Concurrently, the physical weight of exported products increased significantly to 131.2 million tons, while the average export price decreased from $443 per ton in 2022 to $318 per ton in 2024, suggesting alterations in the export commodity structure and the necessity for a continued transition toward high-value-added products.
In 2024, the EU market became the primary destination for Ukrainian exports. Its share in the geographical structure of merchandise exports increased from 39.3% in 2021 to 59.5% in 2024. Conversely, the share of exports to the CIS countries, China and other regions has experienced a substantial decline. In terms of the commodity structure, agri-food products have become the dominant export, while the share of metallurgy has decreased from 24.2% in 2021 to 10.4% in 2024. Such shifts indicate that Ukrainian exports are adapting to new conditions and focusing on promising European markets and the agricultural sector.
However, the low-tech structure of Ukrainian exports remains a notable drawback in the sector, where the share of raw materials and low-processed goods has increased from 52% to 66.3% in 2024. This influences the average export prices of Ukrainian products in Group 1-24 (agriculture and food), which are significantly lower than those in the EU countries such as Poland and France. For instance, the average export price of Ukrainian products in Group 1-24 in 2023 was $325 per ton, whereas it was $1554 per ton in Poland and $1452 per ton in France. To enhance the competitiveness of Ukrainian products on the global market, it is essential to focus on enhancing the depth of processing and the manufacturability of these products.
Major export barriers
According to a survey of Ukrainian enterprises conducted by the Ministry of Economy in January-February 2025, the following barriers to exports were identified:
- 73% – logistical problems: high transport tariffs, lack of drivers, capacity problems on the western border
- 54% – currency restrictions during martial law: short terms for returning revenue (180 days), which further complicates the export of engineering goods and work with retail chains abroad
- 49% – difficulties with border crossing for business travel
- 49% – shortage of qualified personnel due to mobilization and migration
- 46% – weakness of the state financial instruments to support exporters, in particular, lack of export credits and limited war risk insurance
- 44% – unwillingness of foreign partners to cooperate with Ukraine due to risks associated with the war
Among other barriers, entrepreneurs cited tariff (high import duties in certain Asian countries) and non-tariff (additional requirements and lack of experience in supplying certain products) barriers, difficulties with product certification, lack of information about foreign markets, lack of support abroad and delays in customs clearance. This demonstrates the need for a systematic approach to solving export problems at the state level.
Strategic approach to exports
Export policy should be an organic extension of business operations. Ukrainian manufacturers, although not yet members of the EU, already utilize the European standards. This creates a unique competitive advantage that allows domestic companies to quickly integrate into international markets. Leveraging its human capital, natural resources and favorable geographic location, Ukraine can strengthen its public policies and expand production of higher value-added goods and services that are in demand abroad.
Amid the global changes in trade, new opportunities are opening up for Ukrainian exports:
- Demand for food security is driving the growth of Ukrainian agricultural exports.
- Formation of new value chains in the context of Green and Digital Transitions.
- Capital and production movement due to geopolitical risks gives Ukrainian companies a chance to become part of new international production chains.
- Development of digital services opens up opportunities for the export sector, as it eliminates the need for physical movement of people and goods.
Ukraine has significant potential to expand its exports to international markets, where there is consistently high demand for certain commodities. Notably, food products (cheeses, oils, animal feed, confectionery), woodworking products and paper hold promising opportunities in the European Union. Additionally, the markets of the Middle East are showing considerable prospects, namely, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, where imports of oils, flour, confectionery, chocolate, poultry, processed and canned vegetables, wood and paper products are experiencing rapid growth. The regions most likely to benefit from this export expansion are those with well-developed agricultural and wood processing industries, including Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Volyn, Rivne and Kyiv oblasts.
The Government of Ukraine is also continuing negotiations with the EU on the ACCA (Agreements on Conformity Assessment and Acceptance of Industrial Goods), also known as the “industrial visa-free regime”, regarding the conformity assessment and the acceptance of industrial products. Approval of this agreement would further stimulate Ukraine’s economic growth and facilitate deeper integration into the European market.
Key indicators of the export strategy
According to the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine, the following projections are expected by 2030:
- Increase in exports of goods and services to $77 billion ($51 billion in 2024).
- Achieving a ratio of exports of goods and services to GDP of 33% (in 2023, this figure was 25%).
- Reducing the share of raw materials to 59% (as against 74% in 2024), which will help develop exports of high value-added goods.
These indicators are possible provided that in 2025 intensive hostilities cease on the territory of Ukraine and there is no destruction of infrastructure, including energy, the market prices do not change significantly compared to 2024, and the state mechanism for developing and implementing economic strategies is enhanced.
3/4 of the exports go to the countries with which the Ukraine has trade relations.
Next steps
Ukrainian businesses need stability, access to finance and simplified procedures to enter foreign markets. These are the primary areas where the government can provide support:
- Expanding the geography of exports, particularly to the markets of the Global South (Middle East, Southeast and Latin America).
- Stimulating investment in the production of medium- and high-tech products and increasing their share in exports.
- Improving financial mechanisms to support the exporters.
- Expanding cooperation opportunities with potential counterparties.
- Improving export logistics, optimizing transportation time and costs.
- Improving customs procedures and product certification.
The implementation of these key measures will allow Ukraine to strengthen its position in international markets and ensure sustainable export growth. This, in turn, will contribute to the country’s economic stability.
The team of BDO in Ukraine is ready to assist businesses in entering global markets. With a global network spanning 166 countries, our Ukrainian office is strategically connected to foreign partners who can identify potential international business partners for our clients. Our comprehensive support includes analyzing potential markets, developing export strategies and providing consultations on taxation, product certification and legal aspects of export activities. Our global network of experts is well-equipped to address the challenges faced by Ukrainian businesses, ensuring that exports become a catalyst for long-term growth and success. To discuss your specific needs, please request a consultation.
